Four Pathways to Artificial Superintelligence: Scaling, Paradigm Shifts, Recursion, and Collective Intelligence
The report frames the transition from AGI to artificial superintelligence (ASI) as occurring along four distinct pathways: scaling existing systems, fundamental paradigm shifts, recursive self-improvement, and emergence from multi-agent collectives. Rather than a single transformative discontinuity at AGI, the analysis suggests a more likely scenario of continuous acceleration across multiple AI-driven breakthroughs in science and technology, necessitating interdisciplinary preparation at global scale. Frictions and bottlenecks along these pathways remain poorly understood, creating substantial uncertainty about ASI development timelines.