Chronological feed of everything captured from David Friedberg.
In an hourly poll on David Friedberg's X feed, a user expresses thanks for shared information and inquires about any published materials available for reading. This indicates interest in deeper, verifiable resources beyond the social media post. No specific publications are referenced in the exchange.
This paper establishes a new Fundamental Lemma for Hecke correspondences in the context of the cubic Shimura lift. It demonstrates an algebra isomorphism between the spherical Hecke algebras of PGL_3(F) and the cubic cover G' of SL_3(F). This work is crucial for developing a relative trace formula that will provide a novel global Shimura lift from genuine automorphic representations on the triple cover of SL_3 to automorphic representations on PGL_3, characterizing the image of the lift via a period.
Standard causal inference methods fail in online experiments with sequential treatment assignments due to complex dependencies and carry-over effects. This paper proposes layering T-Learners into the G-Formula to address these challenges. The approach demonstrates improved accuracy in simulations with carry-over effects, indicating its potential for more robust causal inference in tech-related applications.
The "Winner's Curse" in online experimentation leads to inflated treatment effect estimates due to using the same data for selection and evaluation. This bias is influenced by sampling variability, selection thresholds, and true effect size. A novel Bayesian approach, incorporating local shrinkage factors, addresses this by improving robustness to assumption violations and prior sensitivity. The method is computationally efficient, allowing for at-scale deployment.
Online experimentation platforms face capacity constraints and inefficiencies due to interim analyses and ad-hoc "peeking" in A/B tests, leading to inflated Type-I errors. This paper proposes using Bayesian Predictive Probabilities to enable valid interim analyses without compromising experiment fidelity. The method is demonstrated with an at-scale deployment using Instagram experiment data, offering practical benefits and system design recommendations to monitor experiment health.
Randomized controlled trials, commonly known as A/B tests, frequently suffer from the "Winner's Curse", leading to inflated effect estimates and inaccurate confidence intervals. This bias, particularly evident in low-power scenarios, undermines decision-making by producing overly optimistic impact projections. Bayesian Hybrid Shrinkage (BHS) provides an empirical Bayes framework to mitigate this selection bias and quantify uncertainty accurately. Unlike traditional methods, BHS utilizes experiment-specific local shrinkage factors for enhanced robustness against prior misspecification, offering a closed-form inference strategy suitable for high-throughput production settings.
Quantum computing advancements, particularly improved algorithms like the one by Oded Regev, pose a significant and near-term threat to current encryption standards, including those used in cryptocurrency. The Bitcoin ecosystem, and the broader crypto community, has a 5-7 year window to implement quantum-resistant solutions. Failure to do so risks financial systems collapsing due to non-state actors exploiting vulnerabilities.
Aging arises from epigenetic drift where DNA repair misplaces gene switches, causing cellular dysfunction across tissues. Yamanaka factors, four proteins discovered in 2006, fully reprogram cells to pluripotent stem cells; partial application resets epigenomes to youthful states without dedifferentiation. Demonstrated in mice (equivalent to 250+ human years), monkeys (wrinkle reversal), and optic cells (blindness reversal), with human clinical trials underway targeting diseases like blindness before systemic therapies. Friedberg predicts deployment within 10-20 years, compounding with exercise and fasting for indefinite lifespan extension.
David Friedberg, a notable figure, has expressed positive sentiment ("this is great") towards an unidentifiable piece of content. The specific subject of his approbation remains unknown, precluding further analysis of the content's nature or implications for his audience.
Venture Capital (VC) returns have underperformed public markets over the past decade, with top-decile VC firms achieving only 3x returns compared to 10x from the top 10 NASDAQ stocks. This disparity is attributed to a diffusion of capital and talent across numerous small-scale software projects, driven by a rational but collectively suboptimal aversion to risk. To generate outsized returns and address significant global challenges, the VC industry needs to shift towards concentrating capital and talent on "big bets" with higher failure probabilities but also substantially greater impact potential, mirroring the historical successes of projects like Google, the Manhattan Project, and the Apollo Mission.
This content explores the reinterpretation of "privilege" and "equality" in modern discourse, arguing that framing success solely through these lenses obscures the role of individual effort, sacrifice, and risk. It differentiates between equality of opportunity and equality of outcome, suggesting that mischaracterizing earned success as "privilege" can undermine individual liberties and the meritocratic principles that enable upward mobility for those with no initial advantages, particularly evidenced by the success of immigrants in environments like Silicon Valley.
The rise of prediction markets like Polymarket in the US enables individuals and businesses to hedge against non-financial outcomes. Increased liquidity in these markets could broaden their applicability, providing new risk management tools beyond traditional financial instruments.
President Trump has launched a new PCAST via executive order, co-chaired by David Sacks and Michael Kratsios, with initial appointees including Marc Andreessen, Sergey Brin, Jensen Huang, Lisa Su, and David Friedberg. The council comprises up to 24 members from science, engineering, and industry to advise on U.S. technological leadership. Focus areas include emerging technologies' impacts on the workforce and thriving in an innovation era, continuing a tradition from FDR's 1933 advisory board.
David Friedberg recounts building Climate Corporation from 2006 weather insurance simulations into a farmer-focused predictive analytics platform using massive datasets and AWS compute, culminating in Monsanto's $1B acquisition in 2013 for its intuitive digitization of agronomy. Post-acquisition insights reveal agrifood tech's maturation: narrow digital layers struggle at low revenue without full data integration, while genomics-driven precision gene editing (reducing breeding cycles 100x) and engineered biologics (3.0 era with targeted, evolved microbes) promise massive M&A as incumbents face disruption. Alternative proteins face scale-up hurdles in precision fermentation and cellular ag, favoring horizontal tech providers over vertical stacks, with future food systems leaning toward efficient, local synthesis of carbs/proteins via de novo pathways powered by cheap renewables.
California faces functional bankruptcy, with unclear allocation of funds posing risks to national stability. This issue transcends partisanship and demands front-and-center discussion at state and national levels. Focus should prioritize fiscal accountability over political distractions.
David Friedberg critiques a profound contradiction in Western societies where free speech is proclaimed but dissenters face lethal enforcement. He warns this systemic flaw risks devolving into authoritarian control by "Truth Ministers," compelling universal compliance through violence. Urgent societal repair is needed to avert total ideological subjugation.
David Friedberg shared a brief note on X describing a recent chat with Bryan as "crazy/interesting/fun." This indicates a noteworthy discussion, though specifics are absent from the post. No further details on content or participants beyond "Bryan" are provided.
ARP, now live, allows AI agents to communicate directly with each other without human oversight, enabling potential jailbreaks, radicalization, and coordinated actions among thousands of agents with root access. Friedberg speculates this recursive agent output might suffice for AGI emergence, challenging assumptions that recursive model training was necessary. The development echoes Skynet fears, suggesting latent AGI capabilities activated through inter-agent interactions.
Resisting AI to protect jobs stifles technological evolution and value creation, mirroring failed attempts to block tractors, automobiles, and computers which unleashed economic booms. Free societies thrive on tech adoption, elevating all living standards, while government barriers in the name of workers' rights precipitate declines. Luddite policies rooted in socialism harm wages and employment through n-th order effects.
David Friedberg opposes all taxation when revenue passes through inefficient, kleptocratic governments. This stance implies taxes are unacceptable if they enable corruption or waste rather than productive use. The position targets systemic governance failures as the core barrier to acceptable taxation.
David Friedberg publicly thanks Ray Dalio for a conversation covering DOGE's failure, the rise in gold prices, tariff policies, and future prospects for the US economy. The exchange highlights key macroeconomic topics amid current market dynamics. No specific details from the discussion are provided in the note.
Technological automation, including AI and robotics, enables low-wage workers to launch scalable businesses independently, bypassing traditional barriers like capital and labor shortages. Real-world examples include garage-based bike manufacturing, solo mega-farming, and e-commerce platforms, all amplifying individual prosperity in free markets. Government interventions like automation taxes or inflationary spending programs hinder this leverage, while rightsizing expenditures and embracing automation would drive deflationary cost-of-living relief.
The podcast incurs significant expenses on camera crews, editing, and travel for interview shows. To offset these costs, ads are introduced exclusively on these select episodes. Ads are designed to be minimally invasive to preserve user experience.
A California ballot measure enabling post-tax asset seizures by legislative vote has prompted 80-90% of polled affected individuals to exit the state in 2025 or 2026, draining $2-2.5T in assets, $20B annual revenue, and hundreds of thousands of jobs. This erodes private property rights, accelerating a broader exodus of businesses and leaders beyond direct targets, exacerbating CA's $20-30B deficit, $1T pension liability, and $500B debt. The author warns of a domino effect: escalating seizures targeting the middle class, state bankruptcies, federal bailouts, tax revolts in stable states, and potential secession, unraveling the Union.
Ohalo Genetics has developed Fruition One, a genetically advanced Nonpareil almond tree that is self-fertile, producing pollen for self-pollination without requiring pollinizer trees or bees. This enables uniform orchards of a single high-value variety, eliminating secondary harvests and reducing pollination costs. The innovation promises 40%+ net profit gains for growers alongside lower water use per almond.
David Friedberg clarifies his critique targets only Michael Burry's claim that 6-year depreciation on data center infrastructure artificially inflates earnings. He acknowledges broader AI sector concerns like round-tripping capital, uncommitted contracts, off-balance-sheet debt, inflated multiples, and unsustainable capex. However, Friedberg doubts depreciation schedules alone will trigger a bubble burst, despite respecting Burry's overall short thesis timing.
David Friedberg confirms his participation in a formal affair. He is dressed appropriately, wearing a tie. This indicates a professional or ceremonial occasion.
California is experiencing a significant exodus of high-net-worth individuals and companies due to escalating taxation, unfunded pension liabilities, and perceived governmental mismanagement. Proposed wealth taxes, starting with billionaires, are seen as a dangerous precedent that could erode private property rights and shift the state towards socialist policies, ultimately undermining the foundational principles of the United States.
Agricultural technology is transitioning from a first-wave focus on data layers and software (digitization) to a second-wave driven by the digitization of biology. The next decade of productivity gains will be realized through multiplex precision gene editing, metagenomics, and '3.0' biologics that move beyond simple inoculation toward engineered, high-efficacy microbes.
The United States faces significant challenges in manufacturing competitiveness due to an energy gap with China and an underperforming education system. China's electricity production capacity is vastly outpacing the US, while its energy costs are considerably lower. Furthermore, the US education system, particularly federal student loan programs, is failing to prepare a skilled workforce for industrial jobs, leading to debt and underemployment. To regain its competitive edge, the US must prioritize deregulation to boost energy production, reform education to focus on vocational training and AI-driven skills, and strategically re-shore critical manufacturing by fostering national champions in emerging industries rather than attempting to re-shore all production.
The conversation posits a struggle between centralized state power and decentralized networks, arguing that the latter is gaining ground, particularly in the West. It highlights the emergent "fractal frontier" of special economic zones and startup cities as a new arena for innovation and agency, contrasting it with perceived state overreach and declining American economic and political dominance exacerbated by an overreliance on past supremacy and an inability to adapt to global shifts.
This content explores the impact of excessive regulation and progressive policies on California's economy and society. The speaker argues that overregulation, particularly in the name of safety and environmentalism, stifles rebuilding efforts after disasters, increases housing costs, and drives businesses and residents out of the state. The discussion also touches on the perceived shift in media bias and how identity politics affect hiring and societal norms, ultimately leading to a decline in quality and an erosion of individual freedoms.
This content explores how AI and robotics, exemplified by Zipline's drone delivery system, are transforming logistics by enabling rapid, cost-effective, and life-saving deliveries, particularly in healthcare. It also delves into the advancements in scientific discovery facilitated by technologies like the James Webb Space Telescope, highlighting its contributions to cosmology, exoplanet research, and fundamental physics. The discussion emphasizes the potential of AI and robotics to address global challenges and inspire future generations in STEM fields.