Chronological feed of everything captured from Scion Asset Management.
Historical market behavior shows tops are never needle-like, demanding significant preparatory action rather than sudden reversals. Despite recent new highs making the path of least resistance upward, a true top may form over months or during election season. Volatility remains expected amid elections and related factors.
Michael Burry's Cassandra Unchained Substack introduces Trade Alerts, delivered via email exclusively to paid subscribers to address timeliness and security concerns. Alerts provide rapid, concise notifications of Burry's trades, with additional details during extreme market conditions. This enhances subscriber access to Burry's real-time trading activity alongside research and chat participation.
Michael Burry reaffirms his short position on Palantir via long-dated puts expiring in 2026 and 2027, specifically June 17, 2027 $50 puts and December 18, 2026 $100 puts. He has maintained this bearish stance since fall, rolling positions multiple times, and explicitly states he is not selling today. This persistence occurs amid a temporary stock boost from Donald Trump's public endorsement, underscoring Burry's conviction against market sentiment.
Michael Burry expects clarity on his bubble theses, outlined in his prior "Cardinal Sign of a Bubble - Supply" post, by late 2026. He announces a second trading alert of the day under the new "Trading Post" format, promising non-spammy updates with variable frequency. This post is restricted to paid subscribers.
Reflexivity between software credit and software stocks has driven negative returns over recent months, peaking in last week's deep sell-off. This technical factor is powerfully pressuring valuations downward. However, it remains temporary due to the limited size of the software credit market, which cannot sustain further declines.
The Joyful Heart Foundation, founded by Mariska Hargitay, focuses on critical, often overlooked areas within the realm of abuse and trauma. Their initiatives include supporting frontline responders for secondary trauma, advocating for comprehensive rape kit testing, and addressing the burgeoning issue of image-based abuse through legislative action. The organization is highly rated by Charity Navigator and Candid.
Michael Burry proposes a novel methodology to adjust GAAP earnings, specifically addressing stock-based compensation, to more accurately determine "owners' earnings" for companies within the NASDAQ 100 index. This approach aims to provide a more robust measure of intrinsic value, departing from traditional GAAP principles that he argues are susceptible to manipulation and do not always reflect true economic ownership.
Michael Burry is actively purchasing shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This action is driven by his assessment of their current undervaluation, despite broader market declines. Burry suggests that these opportunities often emerge during periods of extreme market pessimism, where holding positions feels "inhuman" to most investors.
The Scion Asset Management blog, "Cassandra Unchained," is implementing a new content format. Each in-depth post, ranging from 5,000 to 10,000 words with numerous visuals, will now be accompanied by an abridged summary of under 1,500 words and minimal visuals. This change aims to cater to a broader audience while maintaining the rigor of the primary content.
The Headstrong Project is a non-profit organization addressing the urgent need for accessible mental healthcare for veterans, service members, and their families. It provides confidential, evidence-based PTSD and mental health treatment, effectively bypassing bureaucratic hurdles and wait times common in traditional healthcare systems. Despite operating with a significant deficit in 2024 to meet demand, the organization demonstrates remarkable efficiency and efficacy, as evidenced by high patient engagement and positive outcomes, and an exemplary financial accountability rating.
Michael Burry argues that the U.S. market is exhibiting extreme valuations and increasing fragility due to structural forces such as passive investing, stock buybacks, demographics, and government interventions. He suggests these factors have inflated valuations to unprecedented levels, creating a "coiled spring" effect that is unmoored from historical valuation measures and ripe for a potential downturn, despite popular enthusiasm for AI-driven growth.
Michael Burry argues that current Large Language Models (LLMs) are fundamentally flawed by prioritizing language over genuine reasoning. He posits that true intelligence, as exemplified by a historical case study, can exist prior to and independent of language. This suggests that LLMs, by focusing solely on linguistic sophistication, are merely creating reflections rather than actual intelligence.
Nvidia has significantly increased its purchase obligations to $95.2 billion, driven by TSMC's requirements for longer-term contracts and upfront cash to support custom fabrication. This shift represents a departure from historical business norms and introduces heightened financial risk as these obligations are projected to grow as a share of total supply.
Michael Burry, a prominent investor, recounts his substantial investments in Asian markets, particularly Hong Kong, beginning in 2003. He highlights the significant growth observed in the Hang Seng Index post-SARS-Cov-1 and his early optimism surrounding Chinese entrepreneurial spirit and companies like Tencent. The piece suggests a divergence between the investment landscape he experienced then and the current state of Hong Kong stocks, which are described as being "in the dumps."
Palantir’s financial statements indicate potential aggressive revenue recognition tactics, with accounts receivable (AR) consistently outpacing revenue growth in 9 out of the last 12 quarters. This divergence suggests the company may be booking sales faster than it collects cash, implying a deterioration in customer payment cycles and potentially inflating reported revenue figures. The significant increase in Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) from 20 to 67 days further supports this concern.